16 comments

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  tommyl

  11 months ago

  I think you're on to something when you think of the distribution of episodic video and even journalism. But you have to remember that broadcast television refers more to distribution than to production. It's true that production costs have fallen, and for many smaller forms of video are practically nothing. But the quality dramatic stuff still costs a lot to make.
  
  I think it's more a question of the future demand for this sort of programming. Probably it will still be there enough to justify the cost of producing it. But how it will be financed will undoubtedly change in some pretty fundamental ways.
  
  But will there still be a demand for quality entertainment and information in the future? I think that's a really safe bet.
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  webomatica

  11 months ago

  Seems while broadcast TV is definitely dying and near dead I don't see cable dying for quite some time, if only because of the neat trick that along with broadband via cable, people inevitably sign up for cable TV as well. Cable TV combined with a PVR still trumps TV over the internet in many ways, both in amount of content, and I also think the cable companies have many evil tricks up their sleeves (broad band caps for example) to try to retain viewers as long as possible. This is going to be a long, drawn out battle over a decade or more.
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  nicefishfilms

  11 months ago

  Duncan, very interesting post. I believe that "traditional" print newspapers will be the first to fall though. You correctly assert that newspapers are changing with the times and seem to be embracing the transition to online versions. In this transition it is important for editors to remember that the net is its own medium, and just shifting content will not be enough.
  
  I also agree that radio will remain strong, especially with an aging demographic. Talk radio continues to lead the way here.
  
  Television isn't quite dead yet, but the shift is on. I'm not quite ready to give up my big screen with DVR's personalization of programming. When the Sopranos ended on HBO the cancellations were staggering, it seems that people are just not as attached to the idea of television as they once were.
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  gregorylent

  11 months ago

  in the village huts there are tv's. and little else. one lightbulb for the kids to do their homework. there are newpapers at the local tea shop, well-handled by the end of the day, but the tv is always on.
  
  it will take decades for that to go away .
  
  in the urban world, your analysis is good. though electricity is a problem in much of the world's cities.
  
  i have watching television, it actually hurts my brain.
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  radio_lounge

  11 months ago

  The thing about effective radio advertising, is that is will fail unless it getsa major overhaul. Radio sales reps need to focus on providing marketing assistance, not just cashing in on the order. Real marketing gives radio advertising a better chance of success for advertisers. This, combined with innovation for measurement and tracking, is what will be key....and "it ain't HD radio".
  
  My $.02
  
  M. Bruce Abbott
  Creative Director/Partner
  Radio Lounge
  www.radioloungeusa.com
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  AVisitor

  11 months ago

  I'm an Art Director at an ad agency and I LOVE TV Spots. However, I only love the ones I make since I no longer even own a TV. Not only do I watch everything via the internet but I'm watching more variety of programs than I ever did with TV. Many HBO and Showtime programs are available online (albeit a risky game, since I'm pretty sure it's illegal) and it only takes a couple google searches to find full length movies and commercial free programs. RIP TV.
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  curiouslypersistent

  11 months ago

  (Apologies for posting here, but the main comment box wasn't working for me)
  
  A very thought-provoking post, but I don't agree with your conclusion.
  
  In the UK, total TV viewing figures are going up - even among 16-24s.
  
  The main issue for TV is that this viewing is fragmenting across an ever increasing number of channels. Therefore, revenue streams have to be diversified. Take Heroes as an example of a high-quality programme that is successful and profitable over a number of platforms.
  
  The web and VOD will further change the TV market, but TV is an inherently social medium and the living room will remain the hub. It may be streaming shows from the web, but it will be broadcast on the 50" plasma HDTV for all the family to see. And no other media creates events like TV - whether the superbowl or the final of American Idol.
  
  For me, radio will be the first to go - to be replaced completely by an on-demand podcast service. One of the main draws to radio in the car - real-time traffic reports - can be performed by sat nav systems
  
  Simon
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  Omar

  11 months ago

  Television viewing might decrease in developed countries; but in poor countries, especailly in Africa where a television set is still a great luxury - television viewing will continue to rise for a very long time to come.
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  Micahel Outlet News

  7 months ago

  Well I think that television will fall also. It is the age of the Internet
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  Racing School

  7 months ago

  Duncan,
  
  It's kind of you to put the RIP date at 2018. At the rate it's going, I see that tradition TV will probably lose it's appeal by 2013. Ad revenue has dropped, viewership has dropped, interest has dropped. I can't see how they can survive. It's just a matter of time before they start laying off people from the TV stations.
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  Log splitter dude

  7 months ago

  Well I guess you are right. It seems that TV is falling already now.
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  SEO

  4 months ago

  Though its an age of internet but still television has its own importance in our lives and will remain there until and unless wife's are at home and they have their favorite drama channels....:)
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  biznes

  4 months ago

  To be honest I do not really belive that TV will fall. A lot of people just love it and spend time watching this box...
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  christan singles

  4 months ago

  (Apologies for posting here, but the main comment box wasn't in process for me)
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  dead sea salt

  2 months ago

  I dont beleve that too
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  thinking12

  2 months ago

  The decline in television viewing is stronger among younger statistical groups.
  car insurance
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